Breaking Down Cincinnati’s Postseason Scenarios

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With a beautiful mauling of Syracuse this past weekend, the Bearcats jettisoned themselves right back into postseason conversation. Sure UC clinched a bowl bid way back before Halloween but who really cares about the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl? The Bearcats are shooting for the BCS bid that would put them in the Orange Bowl against the winner of the ACC. But with the outcomes of last Saturday within the conference, the picture has become even more clear. Here are the Big East teams who can affect Cincinnati’s bowl positioning:

• Louisville – Currently on top of the Big East with a 5 – 2 conference record. No games remaining.
• West Virginia – Tied for 2nd with Cincinnati with a 4 – 2 Big East record but have tiebreaker over UC. Face USF Thursday night.
• Rutgers – 4th in the Big East with 4 – 3 conference record but also have tiebreaker over UC. No games remaining.

Now, let’s take a look at each of the scenarios for Cincinnati heading into the final week of the regular season.

ORANGE BOWL – 3 Teams in Contention (UC, WVU, UL)

A. Cincinnati beats UConn this Saturday. West Virginia loses to South Florida.

B. Cincinnati loses to UConn, West Virginia loses to South Florida OR UC and WVU both beat their opponents, BUT UC maintains a higher BCS ranking.

C. Cincinnati beats to UConn. West Virginia beats USF.

D. Cincinnati loses to UConn. West Virginia beats South Florida.

Cincinnati goes to the Orange Bowl if:

A or B occurs. Frankly, Cincinnati isn’t going to jump West Virginia if both win or lose this week. West Virginia owns the head-to-head and is already ranked. So the best hope for UC to return to Miami is for South Florida to beat the Mountaineers on Thursday night.

If C occurs, West Virginia goes to the Orange Bowl because UC, WVU, and UL have all beaten each other. Then, the Mountaineers would have a leg up because they would have the higher BCS ranking.

If D occurs, a 7 – 5 Louisville team is going to the Orange Bowl. Please God don’t make this happen.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL – 4 Teams in Contention (UC, WVU, UL, Notre Dame)

I’ll make this brief. Once in a four-year span, the Champs Sports Bowl can pick Notre Dame. The rest of the time, they have to pick a Big East school. In all likelihood, this is the year that the CSB takes the 8 – 4 Irish so you can basically rule this one out for a Big East team.

BELK BOWL – 3 Teams in Contention (UC, WVU, UL)

A. If West Virginia goes to the Orange Bowl, it means Cincinnati and the Mountaineers both win this week. But the Bearcats would have the leg up on Louisville because of the tiebreaker.

B. If Louisville goes to the Orange Bowl, it means Cincinnati lost to UConn but West Virginia beat South Florida. West Virginia holds the tiebreaker over the Bearcats.

C. If Cincinnati goes the Orange Bowl, who cares about the rest of the scenarios! The Bearcats are relaxing on the beach in Miami!

PINSTRIPE BOWL – 1 Team in Contention (Rutgers)

There’s a reason why the Scarlet Knights won’t get picked for the Belk Bowl since they are already out of contention for the Orange Bowl. The committee that runs the Pinstripe Bowl wants to pick a team nearby to boost the crowd at Yankee Stadium. Syracuse was the pick last year and Rutgers will be the team this year.

BBVA COMPASS BOWL – 1 Team in Contention (UC)

Basically this is as far as Cincinnati can fall, the 5th best bowl in the Big East. In a worst case scenario, Louisville would have to win the Big East by the Bearcats losing on Saturday. West Virginia would then get slotted at the Belk Bowl with Cincinnati getting pushed to Birmingham, Alabama. This was once called the Papa John’s.com Bowl but has sinced changed their name. This wouldn’t be a terrible scenario. The Bearcats are at least used to winning there.

Did this help or are you even more confused than before? The primary bowls the Bearcats can go to are the Orange Bowl, Belk Bowl, and BBVA Compass Bowl. Basically, just root for South Florida to pull out a miracle and beat West Virginia while at the same time pushing for your Bearcats to beat Connecticut. It’s that simple.