Previewing the Cincinnati Bearcats vs. the Marquette Golden Eagles

There are certain UC basketball games I look forward to every year. At the top of the list is Xavier, of course, followed closely by Louisville. Obviously these two are heated rivals from their close proximity to Cincinnati and have a history of hard-fought games in many sports. But right behind those two is the Marquette Golden Eagles. The Bearcats have a history with them, too. Marquette and Cincinnati have been playing league together for the last 20 years, dating all the way back to the Great Midwest Conference. Over that time they have boasted, for the most part, very strong basketball programs who have butted heads on more than a few occasions for conference supremacy.

My most memorable clash was during the 2001-02 season when a 4th ranked Bearcats team hosted the 9th ranked Golden Eagles. It was Cincinnati’s rematch with Marquette after basically getting pasted earlier in the season and featured a pair of point guards who are among the best in their respective school’s history, Steve Logan and Dwayne Wade (yep, that Dwayne Wade). The Bearcats were extremely motivated because the loss to the Golden Eagles was their only one of the season to that point in addition to being flat out manhandled most of the day. And during rematch that motivation propelled UC to a large lead at halftime. But Cincinnati nearly screwed the pooch letting Marquette back in it both teams exchanged punches in the closing minutes. The Bearcats were actually down in the last minute but thankfully a Donald Little floater with just seconds remaining won it for Cincinnati. Take a look:

Let’s get tomorrow’s game.

Key Numbers

Marquette lost two huge pieces to last year’s team, Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. As a result the Golden Eagles are scoring less points (-5.5), averaging less assists (-1.5), grabbing less rebounds (-0.9), and stealing the ball less per game (-1.4) this season. Remember, last year’s numbers are inclusive of the entire Big East schedule whereas this year’s data is basically from Marquette’s non-conference games where points, assists, etc. are generally easier to come by. So when understanding that context the Golden Eagles are performing even worse this season compared to last. By and large it looks like they’ve lost their signature uptempo style, averaging just under 66 possession per game (11th in the Big East). Cincinnati, built in the same mold, are averaging almost three more each game which is good for 4th most in the Big East. So while the Golden Eagles are still a dangerous team, they are clearly shadows of themselves compared to years past.

Players To Watch

Cashmere Wright: As of now we have no idea if he will really play or not after tweaking his knee on Tuesday against the Blue Demons. The Bearcats will sorely miss Cash if he’s out which was painfully evident against DePaul who nearly erased UC’s 13 point lead as soon as he went down. In that game Cincinnati’s point guard shot 73% from the field and led the way with 20 points and 7 assists. With Sean Kilpatrick going cold of late Cash has been the Bearcats’ only truly consistent scoring threat. In all likelihood Mick will have to lean on the ice cold Kilpatrick, streaky JaQuon Parker, and young Ge’Lawn Guyn to make up for Cash’s production if he’s unavailable tomorrow night.

Junior Cadougan (#5): If Cash doesn’t play tomorrow night, this guy scares me even more. Besides having one of the best names in college basketball, Cadougan is the catalyst of the Golden Eagles offense as he has for a couple of years now. But he’s been stymied of late but is poised for a breakout game sooner rather than later and I hoping that doesn’t come against a Bearcats team down their best point guard. Really it seems like Cash is Cincinnati’s only true point guard as Mick in the last two years hasn’t found a reliable replacement for him. If I’m Junior Cadougan and I see anyone other than #1 shadowing me down the court, I would be licking my chops to have a big game.

Final Thoughts And Prediction

With a gigantic question mark hanging over the knee of Cashmere Wright it’s difficult for me to gauge which way this game will swing. Obviously the Bearcats’ chances of winning improve mightily if he’s able to play. But at the same time this Golden Eagles squad is still trying to find solid replacements for Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, a duo that led Marquette in points and rebounds last season. As mentioned, their absence is a strong culprit for why points, assists, and rebounds are down across the board. For a Buzz Williams-led team that tries to utilize the uptempo offense and feed off of fast breaks, scoring less points per game year-over-year is never a good thing.

I think as a whole the Bearcats are the more experience team, have stronger pieces in place (despite all of them not playing particularly well right now), and will have home court advantage in front of what should a very large crowd. Don’t get me wrong, the Golden Eagles are probably Cincinnati’s most talented opponent to date, but I’m giving the edge to the Bearcats tomorrow night.

Cincinnati: 68

Marquette: 66