5 Keys To Cincinnati v. Memphis; AAC Week 10 Predictions

Oct 11, 2013; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats safety Zach Edwards (22) intercepted a pass during the second quarter against the Temple Owls at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati faces a 1-5 football team tonight that looks very similar to the Bearcats’ previous opponents. On the surface at least. But underneath Memphis is a far different team than the Bulls, Owls, and Huskies. Yes the Tigers are starting a freshman at quarterback like Temple and UConn but the personnel on offense appear to be a cut above the others, despite being incredibly young. The Tigers seem to do a lot of things right on offense but, again, they’re just inexperienced. This youth movement in Memphis will serve the Tigers well in a few years.

On the opposite side Memphis boasts a defense that ranks near the top of the conference in most statistical categories. Considering Cincinnati’s inconsistencies on offense, and especially on the road, the cat and mouse game between the Bearcats’ O and Tigers’ D could play a huge factor in tonight’s game.

Let’s get to the five keys.

1) If The Run Game Gets Bottled Up, Abandon It

The Memphis Tigers are incredibly difficult to run against. They aren’t allowing opposing offenses to rush for even 100 yards per game this year and a huge part of that is defensive tackle Martin Ifedi. This is really the worst possible situation the Bearcats are coming in to. Not only are they banged up along the offensive line but Cincinnati wasn’t running the ball all that well to begin with. Now they face a strong front seven who create penetration on every snap. If Eddie Gran finds his offense is getting next to nothing on the ground I hope he abandons it quickly and focuses on the passing game, because that’s how you hurt this Memphis defense.

2) Continue The Aerial Attack

The Tigers are stout against the run but susceptible to being beat through the air. Now, that’s just in relative terms because quite frankly Memphis’ passing defense isn’t all that bad. They’ve allowed just seven passing touchdowns this season and are holding opposing offenses to just 6.2 yards per attempt through the air. The secondary is an experienced unit that knows how to covers opposing receivers close. Still, I’d rather the Bearcats try to move the ball through the air on this Memphis defense than try to do anything on the ground. The thing is, despite being passed on quite a bit (37.2 times per game) the Tigers have only picked off the ball four times this year. Turnovers are random but just four interceptions halfway through the season doesn’t speak well for that unit.

3) Stop The Run To Stop Memphis

The Tigers aren’t very good offensively but one area where they hang their hat is the running game. The Tigers boast a two-headed attack with veteran Brandon Hayes and talented youth Marquis Warford. Both backs are the short-but-not-small type and are prone to getting lost behind the offensive line then exploding to the second level without the defense knowing what hit them. The Bearcats have been pretty solid against their opponents’ ground game this year and have to keep that trend going tonight.

Oct 12, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback John O

4) Push Memphis Mentally

There are only a few teams in the AAC who are penalized more than Cincinnati and the Tigers are one of them. Memphis averages 8.3 penalties per game and were called for five 15-yard penalties last week against SMU. It’s this aspect of the team where the youth really shows itself. For the Bearcats, this means “messing” with the Tigers on every snap, be it stunting along the defensive line to create confusion on blocking assignments or the receivers chatting up the defensive backs between plays. The Tigers are a fairly undisciplined team and Cincinnati needs to exploit that tonight.

5) Play Tight Coverage

Not only are the Tigers starting a freshman quarterback who has a ghastly 3/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio but the receivers aren’t exactly game changers. They’re neither very big nor very tall, which allows defensive backs to match up on them well. The typical advantage receivers have over cornerbacks is that they are usually taller and can grab jumpballs more easily or have the size to make themselves an easy target for the quarterback to throw to. In general, Memphis’ wide outs have neither of these qualities. Luckily for the Bearcats this plays right into their hands as their talented corners (Drane and Wilder) can play tighter on the line of scrimmage, stay close to their assignments, and pick off a few passes. Or at the very least give the defensive line time to get to the quarterback. Either way, tight man-to-man coverage is the way to go tonight.

AAC Games – 2013 Record: 32-7 (82.1%): I may or may not, but definitely did, forget about last week’s games. Whoops!

Houston v. South Florida: The Cougars are flying high after a dominating win over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on the road last week. Now they return home to face a Bulls team that was pummeled by Louisville. USF continues to struggle offensively while Houston is clicking on all cylinders. That’s why they win on Thursday night. Houston 48, South Florida 13

Rutgers v. Temple: The Owls finally found some offense last week in a surprising shootout with SMU. But they came out on the wrong end of the scoreboard despite the offensive explosion. Rutgers, meanwhile, can’t get out of its own way and has a defense that’s a shell of itself. Still I think they have enough to take care of a 1-7 Owls team at home. Rutgers 30, Temple 17