Previewing The Cincinnati Bearcats v. The Houston Cougars

Jan 4, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Houston Cougars guard Tione Womack (14) and guard Brandon Morris (2) high five after they beat the South Florida Bulls during the second half at USF Sun Dome. Mandatory Credit: Houston Cougars defeated the South Florida Bulls 67-58. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Bearcats aim for their third AAC win and eighth overall win in a row when they take on the Houston Cougars tonight at 9 pm. But UC’s opponent is also looking for their third AAC win in three tries as well. You see, the Cougars, while 10-5 on the season are undefeated in the conference, just like Cincinnati. Houston knocked off ranked UConn last Tuesday and smothered South Florida on Saturday. They have had their hiccups this season (hence the five losses, including one to San Jose State) but this Cougars team concerns me. They’re starting to come together, much like UC, and boast a stellar forward win TaShawn Thomas (#35).

We’ll get to him in a minute but first, as usual, let’s look at the Houston Cougars as a whole.

KEY NUMBERS

Houston isn’t particularly strong or weak in any one area. They’re very “average”, which pretty much explains their 10-5 record and why they beat UConn but loss to San Jose State. The Cougars are very, very strong at blocking the ball averaging 6.4 per game (13th nationally) but are just so-so at everything else; 45.9% FG percentage (118th nationally), 35.5% from three (125th nationally), 35.9 rebounds per game (167th nationally), and a 1.19 assist/turnover ratio (86th nationally).

Jan 4, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Houston Cougars forward TaShawn Thomas (35) dunks against the South Florida Bulls during the second half at USF Sun Dome. Mandatory Credit: Houston Cougars defeated the South Florida Bulls 67-58. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

What that data tells me is that on any given night Houston is capable of putting it all together and pulling off a win or laying a big, fat egg. It’s unclear just which Cougars team will show up against Cincinnati tonight.

PLAYER TO WATCH

TaShawn Thomas: The dude is an absolute monster in the paint. At 6’9″ and 215 lbs he has the length to block shots, which he does at a rate of 3.7 per game, and the size to own the low post. Thomas is not only Houston’s leading rebounder (8.9 per game) but also their leading scorer (17.5 per game). Clearly the Cougars’ offense runs through him and for good reason. This is a guy Cincinnati will want to double-team as much as possible tonight.

BEST MATCHUP

Justin Jackson v. TaShawn Thomas: You knew this was coming, right? Cincinnati’s best post player v. Houston’s best post player? It’s a matchup made in college basketball heaven. While UC should provide him help whenever possible (looking at you, Titus Rubles), it will be on Justin Jackson to man-up TaShawn Thomas most of the time tonight. And it should be one hell of a battle to watch. The player who comes out on top will likely be on the team that ultimately wins this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION

Houston is an up-and-coming team but still haven’t figured out their lineup just yet. Cougars coach James Dickey has started 10 different players this season, clearly tinkering with his roster to find the combination that works. That strategy has been feast or famine for Houston this year. Believe you me, this game concerns me due to Thomas’ ability to take over games but after Cincinnati performed on Saturday, I can’t see them losing this game. It will be close, though.

Cincinnati: 64

Houston: 59