Previewing The #15 Cincinnati Bearcats v. The #20 Memphis Tigers On Senior Night

Jan 4, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats forwards Shaquille Thomas (3) Titus Rubles (2) and guard Sean Kilpatrick (23) during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Cincinnati defeated Memphis 69-53. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

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It really doesn’t get much bigger than tomorrow night, folks! If SMU takes down Louisville at home tonight and stays undefeated in the Moody Coliseum in the process, Cincinnati will have an opportunity to take sole possession of first place in the AAC. Then they can extend their lead to a full game with just one to play by beating Memphis tomorrow night. Considering the final game for Cincinnati and Louisville are Rutgers and UConn, respectively, if the Bearcats declaw the Tigers it will all but decide the AAC regular season championship.

Hoo-eee, I love college basketball in March! Let’s get to the game preview.

KEY NUMBERS

The Memphis Tigers have been an enigma of sorts this season. In one game they’ll beat Louisville by 6 and in another they’ll lose to Houston on the road by 9. The problem for Memphis is when they start turning the ball over and giving opposing teams extra possessions. The Tigers play at a frantic pace offensively. They lead all AAC teams with almost 72 possessions per game and average 1.1 points per possession (3rd in the AAC). Memphis is lead by a very talented back court (four guards are averaging 8.9 points or more per game) but they get out of control at times. The Tigers turn the ball over a ton, 13.3 per game in fact which is near the worst in the conference. The key tomorrow night is to half- and full-court press Memphis into making mistakes. That should help bolster Cincinnati’s scoring numbers that haven’t been too hot recently.

Feb 8, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Tigers forward Shaq Goodwin (2) celebrates defeating the Gonzaga Bulldogs 60-54 at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Joe Jackson (#1): He is Memphis’ senior point guard and the quarterback of the offense. Jackson averages a team leading 14 points and 4.6 assists per game. But he shoots just 26.5% from beyond the arc, which is down almost 20% from last season, and indicates that he does most of his damage closer to the bucket. Memphis isn’t a particularly tall or long team and rely heavily on the play of the guards so this isn’t too surprising. UC needs to crash the lanes to slow down this kid.

Shaq Goodwin (#2): I could have easily gone with another senior guard here, Michael Dixon Jr., but with the importance of Justin Jackson’s presence, Memphis’ leading inside man gets a taste of the spotlight here. Goodwin paces all Tiger forwards with 12.3 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Cincy did a nice job shutting him down in the last go around (6 points, 6 boards) thanks in large part to Jackson’s efforts. If he can perform at the same level once again and stay out of foul trouble, that will go a long way to pulling out a UC dub tomorrow night.

BEST MATCHUP

GeLawn Guyn v. Joe Jackson: In a game like this one where guard play is so extraordinarily important for the opposing team, I have to pick Cincinnati’s best defensive back court player. Say what you want about his offensive abilities (or inabilities, Mr. or Mrs. Glass Half Empty) but GeLawn Guyn is that guy for the Bearcats. He’s been a stopper of late, shutting down Russ Smith (7 points from the field, 3 field goals, 30% shooting) and Shabazz Napier (9 points from the field, 4 field goals, 31% shooting) in the last two games. Now, Cincinnati didn’t come out on top but through no fault of Guyn’s defense. It’s been sensational!

FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION

Regardless of what transpires in the Louisville-SMU game tonight, Cincinnati must must must beat Memphis tomorrow. It’s not far-fetched to say that UC needs a favorable seeding (2 or 3) in the NCAA Tournament to make a deep run and taking down a ranked Tigers team will go a long way to getting one of those slots. Despite two straight losses, I don’t see how this team, bolstered by seniors at key positions and on their night, doesn’t beat Memphis. They did so before on the road so why can’t they complete the sweep at home? I’m taking the Bearcats tomorrow night.

Cincinnati: 71

Memphis: 62