Cincinnati Bearcats Project To 3 Or 4 Seed In NCAA Tournament

Mar 14, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats forward Shaquille Thomas (3) leaves the court during the first half against the Connecticut Huskies in the semifinals of the American Athletic Conference college basketball tournament at FedEx Forum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

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The Cincinnati Bearcats lost in a heartbreaker to the UConn Huskies in the AAC Tournament semifinals last night. But no sooner do we mourn that loss must we turn our attention to the NCAA Tournament and Selection Sunday tomorrow. In a perfect world Cincinnati is staring at a 2 or 3 seed. The Bearcats didn’t have the resume to earn a top spot in their region. That’s just the reality of the situation when you compare their record with those of Florida and Arizona. But UC had a legitimate shot at the top two spots on the opposite side of the bracket.

That would have been ideal for Cincinnati. This year’s Bearcats team is very top heavy, relying on Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson to shoulder the load. UC simply doesn’t have the array of weapons or depth in the low post to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. Putting them on the opposite side of the quadrant as the #1 seed would have allowed the Bearcats to avoid them for as long as possible, bolstering their chances of survival. A trip to the AAC Tournament finals and/or a win in that game would have assured UC of that sacred 2 or 3 seed.

But with the loss to UConn last night, Cincinnati is in danger of falling to a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, placing them on the same side of the region as the 1 seed. That’s how ESPN Bracketology expert (how does someone get that title?) Joe Lunardi seeds it. As of today, he has Cincinnati slotted as a 4 seed in the Indianapolis region playing 30-win Stephen F. Austin, who are competing for the Southland Championship tonight. Again, the 4 seed isn’t ideal but Lunardi has UC in the same quadrant as Wichita State, who are a strong team no doubt but haven’t really be challenged at all this season. The Shockers are easily the mos beatable 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

While a 2 seed is probably out of the picture, I still think there’s a shot Cincinnati could be given a 3 seed tomorrow night. The Bearcats’ resume is as pristine as any top-15 team. UC’s worst loss is arguably to the Xavier Musketeers, who have 21 wins and will probably be a NCAA Tournament team themselves. Cincinnati’s other losses include 20th ranked New Mexico, 25th ranked SMU, 5th ranked Louisville, and 21st ranked UConn twice. The Selection Committee has to forgive most of those, especially the close ones to Louisville and UConn. Additionally, Cincinnati has several strong wins- 19th ranked Memphis (twice), 21st ranked UConn earlier in the season, and 5th ranked Louisville. Oh, and the Bearcats won the AAC regular season championship.

So the argument can still be made for Cincinnati to earn a 3 seed and they probably won’t fall farther than a 4 seed. The former would be the best situation for this particular UC team but if the Bearcats can get in the right region could make a solid run. While they are young further down the roster, Cincinnati is an experienced postseason team at the top. Guys like Kilpatrick, Jackson, and Rubles have all been in the NCAA Tournament before. Some have been there several times. That experience should only help UC’s chances when the madness kicks off late next week.