Should Gunner Kiel Sit On Friday At Tulane?

Cincinnati Bearcats starting QB Gunner Kiel is now expected to “play” this Friday night, when UC travels to New Orleans to fave the Tulane Green Wave.  Whether he starts or not is yet to be determined by the coaching and training staffs.  Kiel re-injured his bruised ribs last Friday night in a 34-17 win over the South Florida Bulls.  Before being knocked out of that game, Kiel was very effective: In just one half, he threw for 196 yards and a TD, and also ran in a 17-yard TD on a QB draw.  However, Kiel was again the recipient of a brutal hit to the ribs.  On the third-to-last play of the first half with the Bearcats deep in USF territory, USF Defensive Tackle Elkino Watson body-slammed Kiel to the astroturf.  Kiel appeared to land on top of Watson’s arm, which was driven into the ribs on his right side.  That, of course, is the same side on which he was hit with a helmet against Memphis three weeks ago.  The injury against Memphis knocked him out of that game, and limited him to very little practice in the weeks leading up to the Miami (FL) and SMU games.  Kiel was subsequently listed as “day-to-day” during practice this week, which was the same status he was given during the week between the initial injury and the trip to Miami.

As Chris and I have both stated before, this team has to have #11 taking the snaps to have a chance to be a good offensive football team.  The Bearcats have no shot against East Carolina and Houston if Gunner doesn’t play.  The suspension of Jarred Evans in the wake of his arrest for assault has further complicated the issue, leaving Munchie Legaux as the only  QB on the roster with any real experience.  Senior Michael Colosimo did complete two passes in mop-up duty against Northwestern State last year, but it’s clear what his ability is, given the fact that he has been wearing a different colored jersey during games so that he is distinguishable while giving hand signals.  He won’t be on the field anytime soon, barring disaster.

Even with the lack of depth at QB, I think it might be a wise decision for UC to sit Kiel on the road against Tulane on Friday night.  Tulane is a really bad team – even worse than USF.  This shouldn’t be a shoot-out style game where UC’s offense needs to put up huge numbers to outscore the Green Wave.  The Wave rank 107th (of 125 teams) in ESPN’s Football Power Index, rank 118th in Offensive Efficiency.  The FPI computers give UC a 76% chance of beating Tulane, even though the game is in New Orleans.  Muchie Legaux is not Gunner Kiel, but he did have a solid showing against USF, going 14/15 passing for 121 yards, and running in a nice TD on a QB draw.  While the threat of running USF out of the gym was gone, Legaux kept the offense moving.  He lad four long drives in the fourth quarter, and converted several third downs to keep the clock moving with UC in the lead.  Against most other opponents I wouldn’t say this, but UC should still be able to win against Tulane with Munchie under center – especially with the improved defensive play we’ve seen over the last two weeks.

Giving Gunner the week off this week would basically give him three weeks to get healthy for the showdown with the East Carolina.  After traveling to New Orleans, UC has a bye week before that Thursday night tilt with Captain Carden and the Purple Pirates.  That would give Kiel’s ailing ribs a total of 19 days of rest before the stretch run begins.  And like I said – Roger Goodell, if you are reading, the NFL should follow college football’s lead and always give teams a bye the week before they play a Thursday night game.  It should be a league rule, because it’s just not fair to make guys who are beat up play football on a 4-day turnaround.

We know that Kiel is a really tough kid and a “gamer,” so I’m sure he’ll want to play if he’s medically cleared but still sore.  He showed a huge amount of leadership and toughness suiting up against the Hurricanes when he was still in some pain.  My bet is that he does dress, and probably plays against the Green Wave, but Tuberville needs to be careful.  Tubbs did a great job of that against SMU, yanking his star QB as soon as the score got out of hand, and mixing in Jarred Evans even during the first half.  However, Kiel did play one series in the second half with the score already at 28-3.  If UC leads by 15 or more at any point against Tulane (even in the first quarter), Kiel should be pulled – No ifs, ands, or buts.  With only one loss in The American, this team is still in the conference race, and the stretch run is too important.  It would be wise to give Gunner some time completely off and get him 100% healthy.