Much has been made over the last couple of days over Cincinnati’s last shot in the Crosstown Shootout. With 11.5 seconds left, after making a remarkable comeback I might add, the Bearcats were down 58-57 and owned the last meaningful possession of the game. As expected, Troy Caupain ran it up the floor but when he ran into trouble, passed it his fellow guard Farad Cobb. He attempted an off-the-key three, in which he stepped into his shot with little challenge from the Musketeers.
A pretty reasonable decision, you’d think. But the ball skipped off the rim to the left and Cincinnati wasn’t able to grab the rebound. A Myles Davis free throw later with 0.5 seconds remaining and the Bearcats lost their second straight Crosstown Shootout.
The ensuing reaction from the fan base? Burn everything.
Now, the win over Houston last night helped return some of those good feelings to the fan base. But some people are still fuming about Farad Cobb’s shot selection. Even more so, they’re pissed about the fact that the play may or may not have called for a three with UC down just one point and the fact that Cobb didn’t try to get the ball to the bigs, namely Gary Clark.
My initial reaction was that it was a smart move. Cobb is one of Cincinnati’s best three point shooters, he was making his average on the evening, and was stepping into the shot. Pretty much everything was in his favor. But I was lambasted for it.
Going through the play screenshot by screenshot, I’m even more confident that Larry Davis or Farad Cobb or whoever’s choice to take an open three at the end of the game was the right decision.
We’ll start with the segment of the play when Cobb receives the pass from Caupain. Xavier’s Dee Davis, probably having watched even an iota of film on UC, knows that Cobb wants to shoot a three. And he’s right.
Last shot 1.
When Cobb first gets the pass there’s about 6.2 seconds left on the clock. Davis closes in on him quickly, jumping in front of the guard to force a decision. This is the only realistic moment where a pass to Gary Clark or Octavius Ellis is even possible.
Cobb has a split second to decide whether to throw the ball inside and have risk it getting blocked or pull it down. He opts for the latter.
Farad Cobb last shot 2nd segment.
0.6 seconds later, a couple of things happen at once:
- Davis jumps toward Cobb, who pump fakes and slides to his left.
- Ellis isn’t look for the ball so he’s not really in a position to receive a pass and it would a difficult over the top pass to Clark if Cobb were to attempt it. Plus, if Davis doesn’t block a pass inside to Clark or a shot, Jalen Reynolds is in position to intercept it as well.
- Clark is working on Matt Stainbrook in the low post. He appears to only be partially at this point though and while he’s somewhat facing Cobb, Stainbrook is blanketing him.
Last shot 3.
By pull the ball down, Cobb forces Davis light years out of the play. What he’s rewarded with is space to release the ball uncontested and the ability to step into his shot.
Unfortunately at this point, getting the ball inside is basically out of the question. Reynolds is all over Ellis and Stainbrook is anticipating that pass to Clark. Cobb would have to make a difficult over-the-top pass to either of the forwards. It’s a bit of a risky play, even more so than a wide open, step-in three, and especially so with 5 seconds left in the game.
Last shot 4.
So a three is the best option. When Cobb eventually lets it fly, a few things happen in the low post.
- Clark boxes out Stainbrook to better his chances of snagging a rebound.
- Reynolds went after Cobb’s shot so Ellis is afforded the entire right half of the floor to grab himself a rebound also should it come his way.
- Shaq Thomas does a horrible job boxing out the smaller guard Myles Davis and he himself is pushed out of the play. Go figure, the ball ricochets exactly in their direction. Davis is in a far better position to snag the rebound, which he does, and the game is effectively over.
Let’s go all the way back to the first segment. Farad Cobb’s only options when he first receives the pass from Caupain is to 1) skip a pass himself to Gary Clark or 2) pull it down and put up a shot. To be clear, his only realistic ability to get the ball to either Clark or Ellis is in the half-second before Dee Davis closes in on him. Cobb’s forced to make a split second decision and he goes with option 2.
When you look at it frame by frame, his decision doesn’t look all that asinine. In fact it makes logical sense. Cobb doesn’t attempt a risky over-the-top pass to Clark or Ellis. He steps into an open three, not from NBA range mind you, and it happens to skip off the rim.
So goes it sometimes.
Three point shooters miss every now and again. That’s no reason to lambaste Cobb or Davis for the play. If there’s anyone to have a gripe with it’s Shaq Thomas for unsuccessfully boxing out Myles Davis. Or you can give Dee Davis and Xavier the credit for completely shutting down Cincinnati in those final 11.5 seconds.
For me, I still believe Farad Cobb’s last shot, while not the perfect decision, was the best he could make given the situation. No matter your reaction now, whether if it’s been changed by this post or not, UC remains very much in the hunt for the AAC title an a NCAA Tournament bid. All we can do now is move on and keep backing the good guys because if you can guess from the picture at the top of this page, this team is giving it their all every night. And that’s the most we can ask of them.