Cincy on the Prowl
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Win-And-You’re-In (Maybe) vs. Tulsa, and Comparing UC to Other Bubble Teams

By Bearcat Jones

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The Bearcats travel to Tulsa, Oklahoma on Wednesday night for a 9:00pm ET tip against the Golden Hurricane.  A win would be huge for UC’s tournament chances, as the Bearcats seek to put the finishing touches on a tournament resume that will be decided upon at the eleventh hour of Selection Sunday this year.  Tulsa seems to be the perfect late-season opponent to do that against.  They have a Top-40 RPI (okay, 41st – close enough), but they are not so good that this game is unwinnable on the road.  On the contrary, UC can (and should) win this game. An RPI Top-40 win on the road would provide a nice boost to UC’s own RPI (hopefully up to the 48-50 range at least), and add one more quality win to the Cats’ already moderately impressive list of “good” victories.

I am not a bracketologist, but the way I see it, UC needs to win two of its next three games: at Tulsa (Weds., 9:00), vs. Memphis (Sun., Noon) (COME EARLY/BE LOUD/WEAR RED!), and Game 1 of the AAC Tournament (Fri., Mar. 13).  Winning all three would make UC a lock.  Two out of three will probably be good enough – probably (we all remember 2006).  More than one loss, and it will be NIT time in Clifton.  The only silver lining of a potential loss against Tulsa or Memphis is that it would drop Cincinnati to a #4 or #5 seed in the American Conference tournament.  The 4 and 5 seeds play each other, which would provide the Bearcats a slightly more high quality opponent, and one last chance to impress the selection committee.  The bottom half of The American hasn’t been particularly strong this year, so a matchup with a lesser opponent probably wouldn’t carry much weight in the minds of said committee.

Side note on AAC Tourney seeding: a 3-way tie between UC/Temple/UConn would make UC either the #3 or #4 seed.  The tie-breaker is pretty complex, and there are still several scenarios in play, but most of them would have Temple as #5 (since they are 0-4 against Tulsa and SMU), and UC and UConn interchangeable at #3 or #4 – depending on what else happens, of course.  A third shot at RPI #33 Temple in the 4-5 game would be ideal if UC can’t win its last two regular season games.

Now, let’s compare UC’s RPI , Strength of Schedule, and resume with Joe Lunardi’s “Last 8 In” and “First 4 Out.”

Last 8 In:

  1. Oregon – 21-8 (11-5 Pac12), RPI #42, #68 SOS
  2. Indiana – 19-10 (9-7 B1G), RPI #35, #31 SOS
  3. NC State – 17-11 (8-7 ACC), RPI #36, #3 SOS
  4. Temple – 20-9 (11-5 AAC), RPI #33, #60 SOS
  5. Cincinnati – 19-9 (10-5 AAC), RPI #54, #61 SOS
  6. BYU – 22-8 (12-5 WCC), RPI #56, #96 SOS
  7. Colorado St. – 24-5 (11-5 MWC) RPI #26, #120 SOS
  8. Purdue – 19-9 (11-4 B1G), RPI #58, #90 SOS

First 4 Out:

  1. Davidson 20-6 (11-4 A10), RPI #40, #141 SOS
  2. UCLA 17-12 (9-7 Pac12), RPI #50, #17 SOS
  3. Illinois 17-11 (7-8 B1G), RPI #61, #52 SOS
  4. Pitt 19-10 (8-7 ACC), RPI #37, #32 SOS

At first glance, the raw numbers scare me a little.  Everybody right around UC has a nearly equal or much higher RPI and a better looking record.  But upon further review and a littler closer examination, UC’s resume is really a lot stronger than some of the teams around them (with the exception of Purdue).

BYU plays in a soft conference, and their only win of note other than their upset of #3 Gonzaga is a home win vs. Stanford by 2 points.  The Cougars have lost to every other bubble and tourney team they’ve played, and have a soft schedule (#96).

At 24-5, Colorado State‘s record is even better, but they too play in a soft league.  The Rams have exactly one good win – they split with San Diego State.  Other than that, their 24-win season is a sham.  I guess that’s why their SOS is 120th.

Purdue plays in a tougher league top-to-bottom than anybody else on this list, and their resume looks a lot like UC’s.  No wins over top-ten teams, but a big handful of wins over fellow bubblers.  They’ve swept Indiana, beaten Iowa, NC State, and BYU, and split with Ohio State.  They have shown that they consistently play at a competitive level, so theirs is an interesting case.

20-6 Davidson has beaten Dayton and Rhode Island, but those are really their only two good wins (they do get another shot at VCU on Wednesday night).  Steph Curry was not walking through that door as the Wildcats were far from competitive against big names Virginia and North Carolina.  Other than those two games, their non-conference slate was dreadful – thus the #141 SOS.

Temple‘s #33 RPI is due heavily to to fact that they somehow beat top-ten ranked Kansas at home in December.  Other than that win and a split against the Bearcats, the Owls really have no signature wins.  They are 0-4 against The American’s top two teams (SMU and Tulsa), and were embarrassed by Duke and crosstown nemisis Villanova in their only two other marquee games.  Their #60 SOS is due to playing those three top-ten teams before Christmas.  Other than that, the schedule has been cake.  They key to the Owls position is that they have won all the games they were supposed to win – if UC had swept ECU and Tulane, the ‘Cats would have a mid-30s RPI, too, and probably wouldn’t be sweating right now.

UCLA has played a murderer’s row schedule (#17 nationally) including six top-ten opponents, but like Temple, they’ve only won one of those games (at home against Utah)  They did sweep Stanford and split with Oregon, but they lack any other quality wins.  Actually, other than those four wins, they probably haven’t even beaten any tournament teams.  Plus I just can’t see a team with 12 (potentially going on 14) losses getting into the dance.

Illinois and Pitt both play in tough leagues, so there is always the possibility that one of those teams could make a run in their conference tourney and steal a spot from one of the Last Four In.  I like Pitt’s resume a lot better than Illinois’s (frankly, I think they should be in given their big wins in the toughest conference in America), but Lunardi doesn’t see it that way.  A few wins in the ACC tourney could vault Pitt into the dance, given that they’ll play some high-caliber opponents.

The Bearcats, on the other hand, have plenty of quality wins to go around: a two-game sweep of SMU and a win over San Diego State, as well as defeats of fellow bubblers NC State and Temple (albeit a split).  Ole Miss, VCU, and (sigh) Xavier look like pretty “good” losses at this point, too.  UC has a solid SOS.  Really the only things keeping this team from achieving “lock” status for the dance are those two bad losses to ECU and Tulane (thank God UC put a hurting on the Wave in the revenge game).  It’s really not as bad for the Bearcats as the numbers make it look – however, they must take care of business.  A loss to Tulsa would put UC on thin ice – a loss to Memphis might break that ice.  Two-for-two would take a lot of pressure off Larry Davis and Co.