Previewing The 8 Seed Cincinnati Bearcats v. The 9 Seed Purdue Boilermakers

The 8 seed Cincinnati Bearcats will hit the hardwood for the first time in almost a week when they take on the 9 seed Purdue Boilermakers from the Big Ten. We’ve touched on the game over the last couple of days but here’s an extensive preview for your Wednesday reading.

KEY NUMBERS

Purdue’s strength lies in its front court and namely A.J. Hammons. The Boilermakers are the 3rd best team in the Big Ten in rebounding, snagging 36.3 per game. They’re especially proficient on the offensive glass, grabbing 11.8 per game (3rd).

But where the Boilermakers exceed down low, they fail on the perimeter. Purdue is abysmal from beyond the arc, which is good for the Bearcats who would prefer teams to fire away hopelessly from three. The Boilermakers are shooting just 33.5% from beyond the arc, which is statistically better than UC but ranks just 211th nationally. Simultaneously, Purdue doesn’t guard the three ball well, allowing opponents to shoot 35% from here, which also bodes well for a Bearcats team whose outside shooters Farad Cobb, Kevin Johnson, and Troy Caupain can get on a hot streak in an instant.

Still, back to the Boilermakers’ offense, even though they shoot so poorly from three, Hammons and his partners in crime underneath do such an excellent job gobbling up offensive rebounds that they mask the team’s deficiencies from beyond the arc.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Rapheal Davis (#35): He’s the first half of a talented guard combination in the Purdue front court. Davis doesn’t shoot all that well from three (31.6%) but still averages almost 11 points per game, mainly because he’s shooting over 50% from two. The key for him is using his length and size to drive the lane and either pull up for a jumper or go right at the basket. Either way provides him opportunities to get his numbers. The latter is most concerning because it’ll put Davis at the free throw line, which he’s accustomed to and comfortable being. He shoots a solid 74% from the stripe and will likely get his points that way if not from the field.

Jon Octeus (#0): Basically take everything I wrote about Rapheal Davis and transplant it here. The only real difference is that Octeus is a better shooter from both two (55%) and three (35%). He is a slightly worse free throw shooter (72%), through. Still, we’re splitting hairs, Octeus is essentially a carbon copy of Davis from a numbers and playing style standpoint.

BEST MATCHUP

Octavius Ellis v. A.J. Hammons (#20): You probably saw this coming but the matchup to watch tomorrow night is that between UC and Purdue’s respective 5’s. Hammons paces the Boilermakers in points, rebounds, and blocks per game. Likewise, Ellis leads the Bearcats in all three categories. Unfortunately, Hammons has the edge in size, as Ellis gives up a couple of inches and almost 40 lbs to his counterpart down low. That’s the concern for UC, if he’s simply overpowered by his counterpart down low.

FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION

The Bearcats have been bounced in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament each of that last two years. And I’m sick of it. Cincinnati matches up well against Purdue and can pull out a win. UC must prevent A.J. Hammons from getting his numbers and force the Boilermakers to turn the ball over, which their prone to do (13.1 per game, most in the Big Ten).

Tomorrow night’s going to be a grinder but I have all the faith in the Bearcats to pull ahead for good in the final few minutes. And this game will come down to the final few minutes.

Cincinnati: 58

Purdue: 54