It’s game one and unlike 2010, the Bearcats will be in the friendly confines of Nippert Stadium to begin the season. Even more encouraging is that they aren’t facing perennial BCS buster Fresno State in 100+ degree weather again. Instead they’ll be facing the FCS powerhouse Austin Peay Governors. Okay, powerhouse is a bit of an exaggeration. Actually, ‘football team’ would be stretching the truth as well. The Governors won all of two games last season, one of them over Cumberland University which has the distinction of being on the losing end of one of the most lopsided games in the history of college football – 220 – 0 to Georgia Tech in 1916. But let’s get back to Austin Peay who play in the FCS and are essentially the Bearcats’ warmup game before Tennessee the following weekend. Before we get to a breakdown of their ‘football team’ (again, quotes are important here), I can’t talk about them without mentioning their hilarious slogan:
That should really inspire the football team during games. Anyways, let’s get to the offense.
Offense
The offense scored almost half as many points at their opponents last season (420 – 208) and seems to be a run-first scheme simply by looking at their stats. They ran the ball over three times more than they passed and put up 600 more yards on the ground than in the air in 2010. In one game alone last season they only threw the ball four times! That’s Navy-esq numbers. Their leading rushers Terrence Holt and Ryan White combined for most of those rushing yards and while Holt is gone, White is back and will command most of the carries out of the backfield. At quarterback Junior Jake Ryan returns for his third straight season under the helm. In 2010 he threw for 7 touchdowns and a little over 1,100 yards (did I mention this was a run-first offense?). But he did throw for 11 touchdowns over the season so it’s probably a good thing that the Governors run the ball more.
Defense
Austin Peay returns leading tacklers Darrick Dilliad (LB) and Antwuan Majors (FS) who each had 84 total tackles in 2010. On Majors’ other side, strong safety Amius Smith is the third-leading tackles just behind them at 82. Like Cincinnati’s skill players on defense, these three have plenty of experience and should make that Governors defense much better in 2011. However, it is still a defense that gave up over 400 points and 5,000 yards last season in route to a 2 – 9 campaign. The offense is designed to burn the clock and give the defense a rest so it should be up to those 11 guys to step up and make plays so their offense can get back to work.
Special Teams
The Governors will be looking to replace punter Ryan Key who boasted a very solid 41.2 punt yard average last season. Veteran kicker Stephen Stansell did fill in for Key on one punt last season but the punting job may be given between freshman Scott Graves and Ben Campbell (who also appears to double as a tight end. Who knew!). To Stansell, he needs to improve his field goal kicking only making 66% of his tries. With another year under his belt, look for that percentage to climb. At returner, graduating do-it-all running back Terrence Holt was a burner on special teams in 2010 returning 55 kickoffs/punts for almost 1,200 yards and a touchdown. He will probably be replaced by either starting running back Ryan White or one of the receivers.
Outlook
Honestly, this should be a cake walk. I would be surprised, and actually pretty upset, if the Bearcats weren’t leading by at least 5 touchdowns by halftime. I’m more concerned with Munchie and the freshman running backs getting plenty of reps than the actual outcome of this game. The Governors return a veteran quarterback and running back but Cincinnati is a FBS school with tons of experience on defense and a much improved defensive line. The offense should score in bunches while the defense forces plenty of three-and-outs. No matter how you break it down, it’s still a FBS BCS program vs. a middling FCS program. Needless to say, I think a chant of “Isaiah Pead on Peay” will emerge sometime near the end of this game.
Prediction
Cincinnati: 57
Austin Peay: 8