5 Keys To Cincinnati v. Northwestern State: AAC Week 3 Predictions

(Courtesy Shreveport Times)

After a few days of recovering from the hangover that was the beatdown at the hands of the Illinois Fighting Illini we can finally turn our attention to Northwestern State. The Demons are Cincinnati’s FCS opponent for this year but appear to be one of the stronger teams in that BCS subdivision. UC still has a huge leg up in this game but I don’t think this will be like the games against FCS opponents in the past. Northwestern State is not Austin Peay or Southeastern Missouri State.

This is a team that boasts a dangerous passing attack behind junior quarterback Zach Adkins. He’s thrown for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns thus far this season, averaging a Nate Scheelhaase-like 12 yards per completion. As a team Northwestern State is averaging almost 480 yards of total offense per game, hasn’t been flagged a ton this season, and can attack defenses in a number of ways. Like I mentioned, the Bearcats will have an edge talent wise but shouldn’t fall asleep on this team like they did against Illinois.

The keys to the game after the jump.

1) Set Up Brendon Kay To Succeed

Cincinnati’s “new” starting quarterback showed his potential last season by passing for 1,298 yards and 10 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions in basically 6 games in 2012. But he’s been hamstrung this year by a sore shoulder that just won’t heal. As of now it sounds like Kay is at 95% but expects to be 100% by kickoff. Still, he hasn’t taken regular snaps since last season and he, along with the players around him, will need a bit of time to get into a rhythm. So the coaching staff should set Kay up for success by only asking him to make short and intermediate throws on slants, curls, stags, crosses, ins, and outs. This will allow his arm to loosen up and simultaneously allow Kay to get a better feel for his offensive line and receivers.

2) Faster Start

The past two weeks Cincinnati has been sluggish out of the gates scoring just 21 points in the first half this year. It didn’t cost them against Purdue, with the Bearcats tightening the noose on defense in the second half, but it certainly did against Illinois. At one point, UC was even down 21-0 in the second quarter. It was a hole Cincinnati was unable to dig itself out of. This week the disparity in talent firmly puts the advantage in the Bearcats’ favor but this team needs to prove that it can get up for an opponent every week and not sleepwalk through the first half. Cincinnati needs to establish its dominance early and continue to step on their throats until the final whistle. As they say, play for 60 minutes.

3) More Pressure On Obvious Passing Downs

In some ways we can think of Northwestern State as Illinois-lite. They pass the ball a lot and do it well. Against the Fighting Illini, UC only sacked Scheelhaase once and gave him eons to throw the ball. He was able to torch Cincinnati’s secondary to the tune of 300+ passing yards and 4 touchdowns. The backbreaker was on 3rd-and-19 when the Illini QB completed a 23 yard pass for a first down. There just wasn’t enough pressure from the Bearcats’ defensive line and linebackers to force him into making mistakes and was one of the main causes of UC’s loss on Saturday. This week I’d need to see more penetration and pressure from the front seven to restore my faith in them for the remainder of the season.

4) Get Bennie Coney’s Feet Wet

Gunner Kiel and Bennie Coney are the future at quarterback for the Bearcats. While the former has to sit out the 2013 season due to NCAA transfer rules, the latter has been propelled into the backup role because of the injury to Munchie Legaux. In blowouts Coney will have the opportunity to gain valuable in-game reps against real defenses as opposed to the 2nd/3rd string defense he faces in practice. That will go a long way to developing the mental and physical aspects of his game as well as give him a leg up over Kiel heading into the 2014 season. My hope against Northwestern State is that this game is over at halftime, with the Bearcats commanding a 4-5 touchdown lead. At that point the coaches could insert Coney and get him some experience. If he winds up winning the starting job to open 2014, the reps he takes now will only make him a better quarterback that season.

5) Get The Heck Off The Field Healthy

Munchie Legaux wasn’t the only Bearcat to go down with an injury last Saturday against Illinois. Backup center Dominic Mainello and cornerback Trenier Orr were also sidelined. Mainello was actually the second center to go down for the Bearcats, the first of which being senior Dan Sprague. It goes without saying that the depth behind redshirt freshman Deyshawn Bond is razor thin, if it even exists at all. Additionally, junior Howard Wilder will likely replace Trenier Orr playing opposite Deven Drane at the cornerback position. The JUCO played well last week in temporary relief but taking over on a permanent basis is a different story. Overall, Cincinnati simply needs to escape this game without losing more players for a significant amount of time.

AAC Games – 2013 Record: 13 – 2 (86.7%) – Perfect for the week!

Louisville v. Kentucky: The Governor’s Cup is on the line this weekend as these two intrastate rivals clash for the 26th time. This matchup might be the most lopsided in years with the Cardinals picking up a head of steam behind Heisman candidate Teddy Bridgewater and the Wildcats trying to find a coaching combination that works. The boys in red win big on the road. Louisville 45, Kentucky 10

Rutgers v. Eastern Michigan: The Scarlet Knights defense got back on track shutting out Norfolk State last Saturday. This week’s opponent is an Eagles team that has one of the worst offenses in the country just 282 yards per game this season. The Scarlet Knights should chew them up and spit them out. Rutgers 38, Eastern Michigan 9

Temple v. Fordham: The Owls’ 2013 season is teetering on a disaster. They haven’t looked competitive in the slightest in their too losses to open the year. The offense is still a major question but should be able to get into a rhythm this weekend against Fordham. Temple 30, Fordham 13

Central Florida v. Penn State: It’s still early but both of these teams look like they could be in store for pretty strong seasons. UCF continues to just romp over weaker teams behind the active arm of Blake Bortles. Top to bottom they’re the more experienced team. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the Knights go into Happy Valley and pull out a win. Central Florida 23, Penn State 20

South Florida v. Florida Atlantic: If the Bulls don’t start scoring more points the entire USF fanbase might just collectively drown themselves in the Gulf of Mexico. Thankfully South Florida faces an FAU team that is even worse offensively than they are, averaging under 10 points per game. This could wind up being quite the snoozer but USF should pull out the “W”. South Florida 17, Florida Atlantic 6

Memphis v. Middle Tennessee State: The Tigers face a strong offensive team in the Blue Raiders. They showed some fight last week in a loss to the Duke Blue Devils but, again, Memphis is still a few years away. And in this game I just don’t think they have the offense to go tit-for-tat with MTSU. Middle Tennessee State 31, Memphis 24

UConn v. Maryland: The Huskies might want to exact some revenge on Randy Edsall’s Terps but are running into a pretty good, well-balanced team. Maryland has surrendered just 20 points through 2 games this year and boast an offense that can put up some points. Connecticut is depleted of offensive playmakers regardless of the schemes OC and former Cincinnati wide receiver coach TJ Weist draws up. Maryland 35, UConn 17