Projecting bowl game invitations in The American is very different this year than it has been last year and in the old Big East. In some ways, it’s easier, because it allows for common sense. In some ways, it’s harder, because there is no set structure. Starting this year, the AAC bowl structure is not tiered – meaning that there is no longer a selection order in which each bowl game gets to select a participant. Gone are the days when a 9-3 UC team would be bypassed by a better bowl because an 8-4 or 7-5 WVU, Louisville, or Pitt team “traveled better.” (There’s also the fact that as UC football has developed into a competitive program in the past 8-9 years, Bearcat fans have disproven the “UC doesn’t travel well” myth. UC sold out its ticket allotments for both BCS games in ’08 and ’09 and brought hordes of fans to Memphis and Charlotte in ’11, ’12, and ’13.)
In the absence of a true pecking order for The American’s partner bowl games is this simple statement from the league: “The first five bowls listed will be part of a pool from which the Conference will place its teams. Bowl games will be placed based on best fit for the Conference and its membership.” I read this to mean that the league office can basically do whatever they want to create attractive matchups based on geography and opponents – and I like the idea. This allows the AAC to place its top teams in games where it will face opposition from Power Five conferences. Teams can also be placed close to home so that it is practical for AAC fan bases to travel to bowl games. However, it does make trying to project these games a little harder, because it’s basically trying to read the minds of Mike Aresco and the rest of the staff in Providence (P.S. Why is the league office still in Rhode Island? This is not the Big East anymore.)
That being said, I have taken upon myself to try to create a logical scenario for where AAC teams may play in the postseason. Here are my “logical ideas” for AAC Bowl assignments. Again, it’s tough to read minds, so I wouldn’t really say they are “projections.” These assignments could go so many different ways, depending on whether Temple becomes bowl eligible and what other at-large openings exist for AAC teams. The league only has five bowl tie-ins this year, because it gave away its spot in the Bahamas Bowl as part of the deal to secure BYU as its Miami Beach Bowl opponent. The “projections” below are merely what I would do if I were the AAC Commissioner:
Miami Beach Bowl – Marlins Park, Miami, FL – Monday, Dec. 22, 2:00pm EST
Cincinnati (vs. BYU) – The Miami Beach Bowl has been dubbed as The American’s “premier bowl” by the conference. The bowl game is actually an owned subsidiary of the AAC, founded with the sole purpose of creating an attractive game and destination for one of the league’s top teams. Ordinarily, I might put UCF here, due to it’s proximity to Miami. The problem is that BYU has signed an agreement to play in the game in 2014, and UCF and BYU have already met this year (a UCF win in Orlando). That game was terribly sloppy, so why would anyone want to see a rematch? Originally, The American was supposed to face off against Conference-USA in 2014 (the 2015 game will match the AAC vs. C-USA). If Marshall or La. Tech were the opponent, UCF probably gets the nod to go to South Beach. But under the condition that UC wins a share of the AAC title, I would send the Bearcats in order to avoid a UCF-BYU rematch.
Birmingham Bowl – Legion Field, Birmingham, AL – Saturday, Jan. 3, 1:00pm ET/Noon local
Memphis (vs. SEC) – This is the bowl formerly known as the “BBVA Compass Bowl.” What it lacks in terms of destination desirability, it makes up for in name value of the opposition. The American squares off against a low-tier pick in the SEC in this game. As of now, that opponent is projected to be the Florida Gators, a program that exudes prestige, even after a few down years. But here’s an even better scenario that makes Memphis a perfect fit for the Birmingham: if Arkansas or Tennessee can scrape together one more win and become bowl eligible, both of those matchups would generate a huge amount of regional interest. A matchup of the Tigers and a regional opponent from the SEC would sell a ton of tickets. The game is also a short, 3.5 hour drive from Memphis.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl – Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX – Friday, Jan. 2, Noon ET/11:00am local
Houston (vs. Big XII) – Another no-brainer for the league office this year. Many of the same reasons that Memphis is a great fit for the Birmingham Bowl also make Houston a great fit to play in Ft. Worth. Geographical proximity (only a 4 hour drive) is one. Plus Houston has regional rivalries with much of the Big XII dating back to its time in the old Southwest Conference. But sorry, Cougar fans – you won’t be getting a shot at old foes Baylor or TCU this year.
Northrop Grumman Military Bowl – Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD – Saturday, Dec. 27 – 1:00 ET
East Carolina (vs. ACC) – This bowl is easily within driving distance for the ECU fanbase, and would pit the Pirates against a regional opponent from the ACC. The Pirates have already played UNC, but a game against NC State or Duke would certainly sell tickets and be the talk of water coolers in the Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham areas. For that matter, a game against any ACC team would be of interest to the Pirates.
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl – Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL – Friday, Dec. 26, 8:00pm ET
Central Florida (vs. ACC) – Are you sensing a theme in my logic? St. Pete is less than 2 hours from Orlando, and this game would pit UCF against an opponent from the ACC, a league in which they have regional opponents and compete with for recruits. And again, they are here to avoid a rematch against BYU. Unfortunately, the Knights will have to wait for a shot at Miami or Florida State.
At Large – TBA
Temple (vs. C-USA) – The American gave its spot in the 2014 Bahamas Bowl to C-USA to compensate for the fact that C-USA was supposed to play in the Miami Beach Bowl this year (as mentioned, the AAC’s opponent will now be BYU). This leaves The American with only five guaranteed tie-ins in the 2014-15 bowl season. If Temple can get one more win and become bowl eligible (they must either win at home against UC or away at Tulane), then they could fill an at-large spot in the very likely event that another conference is unable to provide enough bowl eligible teams to fill their tie-ins. Obviously, this could end up being anywhere, so I won’t even bother speculating. The Military Bowl in Annapolis could also potentially be a good fit for Temple, and the AAC could then send ECU, UCF, or Cincinnati to another game as an at-large (this is what allowed UC to go to the Liberty Bowl in 2011, despite the Big East not having a tie-in there).