Previewing The Cincinnati Bearcats v. The Central Florida Knights
By Chris Bains
The Cincinnati Bearcats visit the Sunshine State on Sunday afternoon to face the 9-9 UCF Knights at 2 pm. The game will be aired on the CBS Sports Network, if you happen to have that channel. Here’s a preview of the game.
KEY NUMBERS
The Knights are simultaneously excellent offensively and horrendous defensively. Most of that has to do with UCF moving the ball at such a fast pace, averaging 67.2 possessions per game (2nd in the AAC). More possessions equals more points on both ends. But the Knights are efficient with the ball in their hands, shooting 44.5% from the field (4th), 38.3% from three (1st), and averaging 1.04 points per possession (2nd).
The problem is, they can’t stop anybody.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Knights are allowing a whopping 73 points per game (11th in the AAC). The crux of the issue is UCF is awful on the inside, allowing opponents to shoot 49.6% from inside the arc. They also don’t do well on the defensive class (23.7 per game, 8th) and at the same time allow 12.8 offensive boards (11th). Finally, UCF doesn’t do a good job forcing mistakes. Opponents boast a stellar 1.46 assist-to-turnover ratio against the Knights (11th) so a semi-competent offensive team should do well against this team.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
UCF’s Back/Mid Court: Between underclassmen Adonys Henriquez (#10), Brandon Goodwin (#11), and B.J. Taylor (#1), they account for 50% of UCF’s points and 65% of their three’s. The rest is accounted for by a hodgepodge of occasional starters and a couple of seniors. Central Florida’s front court isn’t all that menacing so the focus of Cincinnati’s defense should be on the perimeter.
BEST MATCHUP
UCF and Cincinnati’s Back/Mid Court: This one’s a no-brainer. Pretty much if Troy Caupain, Kevin Johnson, Shaq Thomas, and Jermaine Sanders have good games offensive and defensively, Cincinnati will win this one. The Knights don’t have a true threat inside and rely heavily on the trio of Henriquez, Goodwin, and Taylor for most of their production. As soon as UC shuts them down, they don’t have strong second options to bang inside for gritty points like Cincinnati does with Octavius Ellis, Gary Clark, and Coreontae DeBerry.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION
The Knights have won a higher proportion of games at home (58%) than on the road (17%) and this is just me grasping at straws as to any advantage UCF has in this one. Cincinnati needs to make sure they don’t get wrapped up in the Knights’ tempo, otherwise they’ll get caught taking bad shots and not working through their offensive sets. But with the scorers UC has on this season’s version of the team, this isn’t as much of a concern as in years past. Plus the Bearcats should be able to force plenty of turnovers and turn them into fast break points. I think this won’t be a game where the defense gets the spotlight, as is the case generally with UC, but Cincinnati will win this one regardless.
Cincinnati: 81
Central Florida: 72