Collaborative Preview: Cincinnati vs. Houston
Road game. Ranked opponent. Two-game win streak. Undefeated opponent. Tomorrow’s game is the most vexing of the season. The good news is that at least a couple of us will be right on our predictions now matter what!
Chris Bains
UC is more than capable of beating Houston. They have the explosive aerial attack to score at will on basically any defense in the country. But there are far too many issues defensively for this team to overcome a Houston offense that can rack up the points themselves. The Bearcats can certainly take down the Cougars on the road but that’s a pretty big ask of them. Not this year, folks.
Houston 45, Cincinnati 35
Ben Levin
This is going to be a tough road trip for the Bearcats. The Houston defense is right there with Temple as one of the best, maybe the best defense in The American. The Cougars rank 27th in the nation in total defense, allowing just 17.3 points per game and 236 passing yards per game. Their ball-hawking secondary has already intercepted 12 passes this year. Complicating matters, Greg Ward, Jr. is playing like a juggernaut at quarterback. He’s completed over 70% of his passes with 11 TDs to 2 picks, and rushed for an eye-popping 710 yards and a nation-leading 16 (yep, sixteen) TDs.
The only way UC has a chance to win this game is if they protect the football (I’m looking at you, Gunner Kiel) and get the run game going. This UH secondary is too good to try to outscore. The UC offense has to sustain some drives to give the defense a break from stopping Greg Ward. And speaking of which, UC has to make Ward beat them through the air. Maybe that means lots of zone coverage or spies, but you can’t play man and let him scramble on you, because he’ll make you pay. The Cougars also use a lot of designed QB runs in the red zone. Ward’s incredible speed makes him look like he’s Mike Boone in the Wildcat formation on such plays. Containing him will be a tall order.
Houston looks great on tape and great on paper, but the one thing I am taking some solace in is that Houston is basically untested. They’re 8-0, but they haven’t played any teams who currently have winning records (although they’ve defeated 4-4 Louisville and 4-4 Tulsa). UC will have their chances to take this winnable game. ‘Cats take it on a late Andrew Gantz field goal.
Cincinnati 30, Houston 28
Travis Holmes
Do not let the records fool you, this game is more evenly matched than it appears.
Much talk has been made of how dangerous Greg Ward is and rightfully so. But there are two significant keys to a Bearcat victory.
First, they absolutely, positively must shut down Kenneth Farrow. He is a bulldozer and a physical runner. The type of back UC has struggled with in recent years. If he rips off 5 yards every time he touches the ball this game won’t be close because the rest of Houston’s offense will open up. This would also make Ward impossible to defend, which he’s already pretty close to anyway.
Secondly, PROTECT THE FOOTBALL! It’s obvious at this point the defense does not have any game changers to force turnovers consistently so they must protect the football. They will get blown out if they don’t.
Ultimately I don’t think the Bearcats can effectively stop the run and I don’t think Eddie Gran will make enough commitment to the running game to keep Houston’s offense off the field. I think this game will be competitive for about 2.5 quarters but ultimately I believe the Bearcats will settle for too many field goals in the red zone and fall short.
Houston 45, Cincinnati 30
Alex Thomas
This is arguably the toughest game of the season for the Bearcats. Trying to beat a team that puts up tons of yards, protects the ball, and also turns you over is a tall order. It gets even taller when you have to do that on the road.
UC has to find a way to sustain drives while focusing on the run to keep Houston’s offense on the field. They also have to find a way to slow down the Houston offense just enough.
The Bearcats will have to start fast like they did against the U in order to win this game but I’m not sure that will happen.
Houston 48, Cincinnati 42
Mike Jorgensen
I would love to tell you that this team has it together. Wouldn’t it be nice if we had finally hit that point of the season where we win out? The two-year Tuberville trend would certainly warrant some belief in that, however I am going to pick against my heart this week.
Houston is a good team although fairly uncontested up until this point, hopefully we can at least give them a good game. Their defense is enough to create problems for us, so much so that I envision that we will have 2 or 3 interceptions (whether it’s Gunner or Hayden). I also wouldn’t be surprised by a random fumble and/or a special teams blunder. The truth is, we’re not a very good team this year.1 I think we have more talent than Houston, especially on offense, but we have been out-schemed several times this year. Our defense has hemorrhaged points to some terrible offenses and Houston is the best offense we’ve seen all season. I think we may keep is close for the first half but if we have a third quarter offensive drought (a season-long tradition) then we may be cooked.
I would love to be wrong about this game, but I don’t see it happening.
Houston 38, Cincinnati 24
1 Remember when we had to drive with under a minute left to beat Miami Ohio? Miami still hasn’t beaten an FBS opponent this year.
There you have it! Leave a comment or tweet at us to let us know what you think!