Cincinnati Basketball: Previewing The 9 Seed UC Bearcats v. The 8 Seed Saint Joseph’s Hawks

The Cincinnati Bearcats, a nine seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, will face the eight seed Saint Joseph’s Hawks from the Atlantic 10 on Friday at 9:57 ET in Spokane, Washington. While we took a 20,000 foot view of the Hawks earlier this week, now we’ll dive a little deeper in UC’s next, and hopefully not final, opponent.

KEY NUMBERS

Offensively, the Hawks are a bit of a mixed bag. They tend to shoot a ton of three’s (21.4 per game, 128th in college basketball) but only make 32.7% of them (262nd). By comparison the Bearcats shoot 21.9 per game but nail them at a much better, albeit still pretty underwhelming, clip of 34.5% (175th). But Saint Joe’s dominates in the paint, averaging 52.5% on every two pointer, and while they don’t hit the offensive glass very well (8.1 per game, 253rd), they don’t really need to considering they’re so efficient from inside the paint. Plus with how quickly the Hawks play (72.5 possessions per game, 110th), it’s any wonder why they even think about shooting the three ball at all.

Saint Joe’s is arguably even better on defense. As a team and while this might be skewed by their so-so schedule, the Hawks only allow 69.9 points per game (122nd), which is fairly good. Cincinnati has them beat by a wide margin, only allowing 62.9 points per game, but there are few teams in the country that defend better than the 9th ranked Bearcats.

Where the Hawks truly dominate is on the defensive glass. Saint Joseph’s bigs get after it in the paint on defense, gobbling up 26.2 rebounds per game (25th). Part of that might be their incredible three point defense, from which they’re only allowing teams to hit 31% of their shots from beyond the arc (18th). More missed shots leads to more opportunities for defensive rebounds but they work in tandem and the Hawks are excellent in both areas.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Isaiah Miles (#15): This one’s pretty easy. Miles is Saint Joseph’s best scorer, rebounder, and three point shooter. It’s a rule of thumb (if it’s not, it should be), that if you don’t know where this guy is on the floor, chances are he just scored on you. The tricky part about defending Miles is that he can do just about everything offensively; bully his way inside for hard-earned twos, take a trip to the stripe should he get fouled and hit 88% of his freebies, or step back and hit a three. Oh, and if Miles doesn’t happen to make his shot or someone else on his team misses it, chances are he’s the one grabbing the rebound. There’s just so few weaknesses in his game that the Bearcats will find it hard to slow him down, be they entrust Jacob Evans, Shaq Thomas, or Gary Clark to guard him.

BEST MATCH UP

Cincinnati’s Zone/Jacob Evans v. DeAndre Bembry (#43): If he were healthy, this would be Shaq Thomas’ responsibility. But unless I hear otherwise, I’m under the assumption that Jacob Evans will be getting most of the minutes on Friday night at the three. As such, that puts the onus on the true freshman to stop the tall, bulky slash forward Bembry, who has a knack for, like Miles, powering his way to the bucket and grabbing rebounds. Unlike Miles, though, Bembry isn’t as adept shooting threes but he makes up for that by getting the ball to those players who do have that ability. So, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bearcats roll out a zone on Friday, if they have to play man-to-man in any capacity, I’d only hope Evans is wearing his big boy pants.

FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION

It’s pretty clear that the key for the Bearcats is to win in the paint as they do have the size advantage here. That’s easier said than done considering Shaq Thomas can barely walk, Gary Clark’s ankle is still on the mend, and who knows what’s going on with Octavius Ellis’ foot. But Cincinnati must do what they can to get tough points inside and not settle for bad shots from outside because that exactly plays into Saint Joe’s strengths. The Hawks defend the three ball well, unlike UC, and don’t allow opponents extra chances on offense.

But, something that plays to the Bearcats’ advantage is that Saint Joseph’s is awful at hitting threes, which is the one chink in Cincinnati’s defensive armor. Should UC win the battle inside and the Hawks play to their abilities (or inabilities) from beyond the arc, the good guys should emerge victorious, albeit in a rock fight.

Cincinnati: 60

Saint Joseph’s: 58