How A New Big 12 Might Look With The Cincinnati Bearcats
Now that the Big 12 will officially begin contacting potential new member schools, I decided to have some fun looking at potential expansion scenarios and divisional alignments.
Unless you live under a rock or just don’t really care that much about Cincinnati Bearcats sports (you’re reading this, so I’d guess “live under a rock”), you’ve probably heard the news by now: the Big 12 is expanding! Well, at least they are starting the process. Nothing is official yet, but the league’s presidents have authorized commissioner Bob Bowlsby to begin contacting potential new members to gauge their interest in joining the league. If the last part of that sentence sounds stupid, it’s because it is stupid. Everyone and their mom wants to join the Big 12. Even the likes of Tulane, UNLV, and SMU, oh and even East Carolina (I’ll give you a few seconds to stop laughing before I keep going). There’s not really a need to gauge interest. But hey, they said it, not me.
I think the Bearcats are as close to a lock as their is. I could be wrong, but Cincinnati has every quality that the Big 12 is looking for in a new member. UC isn’t necessarily #1 in every category, but it’s in every category, which isn’t something any other school can say. Football success: Check. Basketball success: Check. Major TV market that would bring new TV viewers: Check. Major recruiting hotbed: Check. Proximity to WVU: Check. New facilites: Check. Solid fan base and tradition: Check. Solid academic rankings: Check. When I think of all the other potential new members of the Big 12, I think UC is the only school that gets a check in all eight categorites.
Look, there is always a possibility that UC could be shut out, but I think that UC is more likely to be included than not. Could the Big 12 go BYU-Houston or BYU-Memphis? Sure. But that would leave the league with unsolved issues. The whole point of expansion is to solve those issues. Houston doesn’t bring new TV viewers, and neither Houston nor BYU is close to WVU. Memphis is a stretch in both categories, being sort of close to WVU and having a decent TV market, but lacking a die-hard fan base (read: TV viewers) since they’re in the heart of SEC country.
So with that being said, I’m going to go out on a limb and make the assumption that the Bearcats are probably in when the Big 12 expands. The only question now is: who else will come along for the ride? I’m going to throw out some scenarios below with a few words explaining what I think of each, and whether or not I believe it is likely.
Scenario #1: UC and BYU
This is a very likely scenario. The Big 12 gets two new, major TV markets ($$$$$) in #33 Salt Lake City and #34 Cincinnati, and solves the WVU travel issue for sports not named football, and gets two schools with solid programs in both football and basketball. Divisional format would be North/South so as to keep the Texas and Oklahoma schools together in the South. But does adding BYU create a new (and maybe even worse) travel issue in the money-losing sports? Does the Big 12 consider BYU as a football-only member because of the travel? More on that below.
(If you’re lost, the “WVU travel issue” is this: adding another eastern school cuts WVUs travel expanses, but it also cuts the rest of the league’s travel. For example, instead of Texas Tech’s men’s soccer team or women’s basketball team (both money-losers already) having to fly east for one game at WVU, the league can make the schedule so that TTU plays a “two-game road trip” of sorts. At WVU on Friday night, at UC on Sunday afternoon, then fly home. You get two games for the price of one round-trip flight. Very similar to how the old Big East used to schedule men’s basketball. You would play Providence/UConn, UC/Louisville, DePaul/Marquette, Nova/SJU/SHU/Rutgers, etc. on the same road trip to save on travel costs.
Scenario #2: UC and Memphis
If you add UC and BYU, you solve the WVU travel problem, but you create the same problem – now with BYU. Provo, Utah is pretty far out West. And BYU doesn’t play games on Sundays, so that makes the BYU travel problem even worse. So you add Memphis, who is somewhat kinda close-ish to WVU and Cincinnati, and still has a somewhat sizable TV market that is outside the current Big 12 footprint. Question is: can the Tigers continue their football success without Paxton Lynch and Justin Fuente, or was that a flash in the pan? Divisional format could be East/West, allowing half of the West division avoid a trip East in the money-losing sports in a given year. East division: UC, WVU, Memphis, Texas, Baylor, TCU. West division: Texas Tech, the Oklahomas, the Kansases, and Iowa State. And the best part of this scenario for the league is the potential for generating mega-TV-bucks in the event of a Red River Shootout rematch in the Big 12 title game.
Scenario #3: UC and Houston
If the league gets scared off by the fact that Memphis may indeed go right back to being a doormat in the wake of the departures of their hot young coach and 1st-round pick quarterback, maybe they add Houston. Obviously no travel issues created at all by that. But you aren’t getting any new TV money. People in Houston already watch the Big 12. But maybe that outweighs potentially adding Memphis and having the Tigers become a Boston College or Colorado or Rutgers type doormat that brings nothing to the table competitively. At least those three are #7, #19, and #1 in TV market size, respectively. Memphis is #48. Houston is #10, and although already in Big 12 country, UH has coach Tom Herman locked up long-term and a respectable basketball program. They will continue to be successful down the road.
Scenario #4: UC, BYU, Houston, and Memphis
I like this one a lot if the Big 12 adds four. With one stipulation: BYU as a football-only member. The league could solve all of it’s issues with travel, expand it’s brand to tons of new TV sets, and add four schools with competitive programs in the money-making sports. Plus, with BYU as a football-only member, you avoid the scheduling and travel headaches of getting to Utah. BYU’s other sports (including its respectable basketball program) have found a nice home in the West Coast Conference where they seem to fit in well (including a nice little budding rivalry with Gonzaga in hoops). Leave the rest of BYU’s teams in the WCC, and you have the perfect solution.
Scenario #5: UC, BYU, Houston, and UConn or UCF.
I think UCF and UConn’s only shot is to have the league add four new members. There football teams are both awful. They each had one flash in the pan season, and now they’re done. UCF is in the #19 TV market and a rich recruiting area, but Florida is already over-saturated with college football, and UCF’s academic reputation is dubious. They touted their school of video game design as one of their top programs, for God’s sake. And their basketball program is below average. Not so with UConn, who has won national championships in both men’s and women’s hoops recently and has a great academic profile. But their football team still sucks, and well, they’re in Connecticut (remember when we talked about travel issues?). Saying that UConn brings the NYC or Boston TV market is wishful thinking – they bring neither. Basically all they have is basketball. But I could see the Big 12 adding one, maybe even both, if it grows by four.
Scenario #6: UC, BYU, Boise St., and Houston
Here’s the most intriguing one that I saw on Twitter. BYU and Boise both as football-only members, plus Cincinnati and Houston (or even Memphis or UCF or UConn if the league’s top priority is TV sets. I love it. It makes a great football conference, and doesn’t create any new travel issues by keeping the schools in the Mountain Time Zone as football-only members. I absolutely love it, and I think people would tune in to watch more Big 12 football if Boise State is in the league. But my opinion doesn’t really matter, so I can only dream. But seriously… WHAT A GREAT FOOTBALL CONFERENCE THAT WOULD BE! You could go East/West, North/South, National/American, Legends/Leaders, or even Orange Slice/Juice Box divisions. It really wouldn’t matter, because the WVU travel issue is solved, and the league is only making 8 or 9 trips total to Boise and BYU to play a few road football games. This one is obviously my favorite, but unfortunately, I think it’s unlikely.
Scenario #7, The “BYU plus two” plan: UC and BYU, plus your choice between Memphis/UCF/UConn
If this sounds familiar, then you’ve been considering buying Bearcats tickets, which is good. You should do it! I like where your head is at. So now you get the #1 potential football member of the Big 12, plus two more of your choice – and (of course) the Bearcats (we’re assuming that, remember). Let’s say that the Big 12 doesn’t want to add another Texas school because it doesn’t expand the TV viewership footprint. Now, you have to choose between Memphis, UCF, and UConn. Again, I think a four team addition is both UCF and UConn’s only shot. If pressed, I take Memphis and UConn. UCF creates more travel issues, since they’re not close to anyone. At least you can go play at UConn and then hit UC or WVU on the way back home during a road trip. Plus, did you remember that they have great basketball? The Big 12 could at least sort of make a run at the ACC in hoops supremacy with Cincinnati, Memphis, and UConn coming in. Let’s be honest, the ACC would still be better, but that’s a great basketball league. Blake Bortles isn’t walking through that door for 0-12 UCF Knights football, so I’ve got them out. One good season isn’t enough.