Cincinnati Football Hosts USF Bulls For De Facto 1st Place In AAC East
The USF Bulls come to Nippert on Saturday night for a pivotal early season game in the AAC East.
Both the Bulls and Bearcats both come in at 3-1 with a loss to a Top 15 team. UC, of course, dropped a home game to now #3 Houston, while USF dropped a home game to #13 Florida State last Saturday. The advantage for USF is that they have a blank slate in AAC play, while UC has again started the conference season 0-1. For that reason, Saturday night’s game is pivotal in deciding who wins the AAC East. USF was the overwhelming favorite in the preseason to win the division and play Houston in the conference title game on December 3. If UC drops this one, it’s probably USF’s division to win – it’s almost impossible to find three losses in USF’s remaining league schedule. East Carolina and Temple don’t look terribly impressive thus far, and the Bulls avoid Houston in the regular season (although they do host a solid Navy team).
The Bulls bring a good rushing attack to Clifton, led by RB Marlon Mack. Mack is a back-to-back 1,000 year rusher the past two years, including a 1,381 yard campaign last season. Mack missed a victory over Northern Illinois with a concussion, but returned last week against the Seminoles in limited action. Limited action really only because FSU turned the game into a blowout early, and the Bulls had to abandon the running game.
If you thought Ross Trail was shaky in his first start for UC, Bulls QB Quinton Flowers completed just 5-of-14 passes against FSU, throwing 2 INTs to just 1 TD and netting only 160 yards. Flowers reminds me of Houston’s Greg Ward two years ago. We know that Ward has blossomed into a terrific passer, but when UH visited the Bearcats in 2014, Ward couldn’t beat good teams with his arm. He relied on his legs a lot. Similarly, Flowers managed to run for 159 yards against Florida State, despite the abysmal passing performance.
To win, Cincinnati must key on Flowers’ running ability, keep him in the pocket, and make him throw the ball on Saturday night. Bottling up Mack would also be a nice #2. With the way the Bearcat defense has been playing and a key cog returning in the secondary (see below), I think Flowers will have a tough time beating UC if he has to throw the ball more than 25 times. Spy him, stack the box, do whatever you have to do to make him beat you with his arm.
And regardless of whoever plays QB for the Bearcats tomorrow night (more below), UC should lean on the run game heavily. The USF front seven was absolutely gashed last weekend by Florida State, to the tune of 478 rushing yards on 63 carries and 6 rushing TDs. My jaw dropped just typing that sentence. That’s a 7.6 YPC average on 63 carries. So let’s go ahead and try to get Mike Boone going early. If you recall, USF was the opponent when he burst onto the scene two seasons ago as a true freshman and had a mega-game running the football (see image at the top of this post). I’d be okay with it if that happens again. You can even give a few carries to Tion Green, too, I guess.
Injury Updates
Stopping Flowers and Mack got a little harder last week, when the Bearcats lost sophomore LB Bryce Jenkinson for the year to a torn knee ligament – a huge blow to a UC defense that has played so well in the first third of the 2016 season. The rest of the defense will have to pick up the slack. What will help: S Zach Edwards looks like he will be back on Saturday night.
Still no word on who will start at QB for the Bearcats. Hayden Moore missed last week’s win over Miami U. with a bad ankle, and the staff is rightfully withholding information on who will play so that USF has to prepare for all three of UC’s quarterbacks. I think it’s unlikely that Gunner Kiel starts, because if he’s going to start, he would’ve started last week. So it’s either Moore or Ross Trail, depending on Moore’s availability. The Twitterverse, which is of course unconfirmed, seems to think it’ll be Trail for the second straight week. In my book, it’s cool if Trail starts. Cincinnati has a great history with backup QBs against USF.
K Andrew Gantz missed the Miami game after suffering a setback with his pulled leg muscle. UC needs him back this week. I think this game is going to be tight, and Gantz is a huge upgrade over backup Josh Pasley, who struggles outside of 40 yards. Gantzis “expected back” per the Enquirer’s Tom Groeschen. That’s a good thing.