According to this metric, the Cincinnati Bearcats will break their March Madness drought

University of Cincinnati men’s basketball head coach Wes Miller speaks during a press conference at the University of Cincinnati on Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025.
University of Cincinnati men’s basketball head coach Wes Miller speaks during a press conference at the University of Cincinnati on Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With KenPom rankings coming out, more accurate season predictions become available for your favorite college basketball team. The Cincinnati Bearcats are No. 36 to start the year, and according to their offensive and defensive rank, they are projected to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.

With an offensive rating of 74 out of 361 and a defensive rating of 5 out of 361, the Cincinnati Bearcats are projected to finish 20-11, good enough for 8th in the Big 12. They are projected to have a 9-9 conference record, which would be the best finish for Wes Miller since they have been in the Big 12.

Last season, 8 Big 12 teams made the NCAA Tournament, the final team making it was TCU with a 21-13 record, 9-9 in the Big 12. If Cincinnati can finish the season with a similar record and quality wins that are in abundance on their schedule, they shouldn't have a problem making the tournament.

KenPom rates three Bearcats opponents as "B's" and 17 as "A's", Cincinnati having the fifth hardest schedule out of any Big 12 school.

KenPom also predicts a 75-74 Cincinnati victory over the Xavier Musketeers in the Crosstown Shootout. This would be the first Bearcats win at Cintas Center since 2001, a streak that many fans would love to see get broken.

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