UC-OSU: So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance?
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) currently gives the Bearcats a 14.8% chance to go into Columbus this Saturday night at pull off an upset of the 22nd-ranked Ohio State University-Columbus Branch Buckeyes. So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
ESPN’s FPI had given the Bearcats closer to a 25% chance at this time last week, but UC’s stock dropped a bit after an underwhelming win against a Miami RedHawks team that the Bearcats really should have blown out. OSU is a 14-point favorite in Vegas, but that’s an improvement over the 21-point spread the sportsbooks were giving at the beginning of the season.
When the Bearcats take the field on Saturday night at Ohio Stadium, they will have an uphill battle in front of them. The OSU athletic department has more money than God, and so do their boosters. It gives the Buckeyes endless advantages in every basically every way imaginable. They bought their way out of playing this game on the road in Cincinnati for $888,000. They’ve renovated their stadium into a 107,000-seat Taj Majahl and built countless other state-of-the-art facilities. They’ve hired top coaches away from other schools, paid them exorbitant salaries, and given them blank checks and private jets for the recruiting trail. They recruit four- and five-star players to fill every position. The boosters buy these kids cars, pay their phone bills, and give them free tattoos, and the coaches cover it up to keep winning. As if getting to play on National TV in the Horseshoe every week and being worshiped by hordes of mindless Buckeye fans wasn’t enough.
The Bearcats must face the harsh reality that every single player they line up against on Saturday (even many of the OSU backups) was more highly touted out of high school, and are probably bigger, faster, stronger, and more talented (the only possible exception would be Gunner Kiel at the QB position). This is the “THE” Steinbrenner New York Yankees versus the Moneyball Oakland A’s. “THE” Haves versus the have nots. David versus “THE” Goliath. It’s going to take a near-perfect effort on both sides of the ball and special teams to pull off this upset – But I’m telling you that I believe there’s a chance. Everything in me wants it so bad, and I’m sure you feel the same way. We need this. I’ve had enough of the arrogance, the cockiness, the overuse of the most common word in the English language, and the sense of entitlement to a 14-0 championship season that constantly streams from 85% of Buckeye fans (the other 15% – the tolerable ones – actually graduated from OSU).
So what has to happen for Cincinnati to upset the Buckeyes, who haven’t lost to an in-state school since 1921?
On Offense, I see the Bearcats’ WRs and QB as the only advantages over OSU, and probably minimal ones, at that, so…
Gunner Kiel’s footwork must improve. I think the biggest issue with Kiel’s performance against Miami wasn’t his decision making, but his footwork. It looked like he was throwing off balance from his back foot virtually all night, which hurt his accuracy and diminished his arm strength. If UC is going to have a chance, we need to see the “Toledo” version of Gunner Kiel, who was confident in the pocket and stepping into his throws all night. If Gunner can do that, UC should be able to keep pace with OSU offensively.
UC’s offensive line must protect Gunner Kiel. The OSU defensive line is stacked, led by Adolphus Washington, the former 5-star recruit out of Taft HS in Over-The-Rhine. Getting C Deyshawn Bond and RT Cody Keebler healthy will be key. Both were “day-to-day” last week, and both suited up against the RedHawks, but neither played. Hopefully that was a case of the coaching staff trying to rest them for OSU, rather than their injuries not improving. Their absence showed, as Kiel wasn’t able to be as comfortable in the pocket. This, of course, contributed to his bad footwork and poor decision-making.
If the O-Line can protect Gunner and he can play confidently with good footwork, I think the UC receiving corps can tear up the OSU secondary. They have all the talent needed to do so, and then some. And boy, it would be sweet to make former UC assistant Kerry Coombs look really bad on national TV.
On Defense, UC’s veteran LBs Jeff Luc and Nick Temple must anchor the defense. The safeties are both young, and one corner is a Ju-Co transfer, so…
UC’s front seven must get pressure on J.T. Barrett. Barrett got rattled against Virginia Tech’s pressure, tossed 3 interceptions, and took seven sacks. Cincinnati must get a good pass rush going on Barrett, who struggled to get the ball out accurately against the Hokies’ blitzin defense, completing just 9-of-29 pass attempts (31%). From what I’ve seen of OSU this season, the Buckeyes’ Offensive Line is definitely one of the weaker links of their 2014 squad. Against Toledo and Miami, It seemed like the Bearcats were only willing to bring pressure when the other team was in scoring range, possibly because UC’s secondary was prone to blown coverages, but the ‘Cats did get a decent rush going and sack MU’s Andrew Hendrix 8 times. When the ‘Cats have blitzed, results have been good, so UC can’t be afraid to dial up pressure against OSU.
UC’s secondary must at least contain OSU receivers. If UC can get pressure on Barrett (I’m confident that they can to at least some degree), the secondary must play well enough to make Barrett pay for his mistakes. I’m not saying that the secondary needs to magically transform into Champ Bailey, Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, and Derelle Revis, but the blown coverages we’ve seen in the past two weeks are not acceptable on Saturday night. We know that Barrett’s accuracy goes out the window when pressured, but if UC continues to blow coverages, his poor accuracy won’t matter. Recievers who are wide open will easily adjust to underthrows and still make catches and yards. If the secondary’s play improves, UC can legitimately win this game. If not, the UC offense will be given the impossible task of trying to put up points every time it has the ball.