Gunner Kiel Regressed In 2014 But His Ceiling Is High

Gunner Kiel burst onto the scene like a bolt of lightning this season. His first pass as a Cincinnati Bearcat was a 52-yard bomb to Mekale McKay. He finished the game with 442 yards from scrimmage and 6 touchdowns, the most from a UC quarterback since Tony Pike sliced and diced the Illinois Fighting Illini secondary on November 27th, 2009.

In a matter of 3 hours, Kiel blossomed from mere mortal to legendary demi-god.

But over the next 11 games his production began to slip.

1st Half: 59% completion, 309 yards per game, 8.7 yards per attempt, 3.2 TDs-INTs, 162 QBR
2nd Half*: 61% completions, 231 yards per game, 7.7 yards per attempt, 2.8 TDs-INTs, 144 QBR

*Excluding Tulane, since he played all of a single snap.

Now, part of that dip was Cincinnati’s burgeoning running game. In the first half of the year the only thing UC could do right offensively was pass the ball and as such the Bearcats leaned on it heavily, especially when they were getting into shootouts on a weekly basis. Hosey Williams and Tion Green, along with a hodgepodge offensive line, just couldn’t get anything going on the ground.

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Then the pair went down with injuries, opening door for Rod Moore and especially Mike Boone. Plus the offensive line finally got healthy. Cincinnati’s rushing attack thrived from effectively the SMU game onward, thus taking the pressure off of Kiel and the passing game. He no longer needed to win games himself, just manage them, as Gran ran the ball more and more.

The other part is the rib injury. Kiel missed basically the entirety of the Tulane game because of it as well as the second half against both Memphis and South Florida. As for the others, he was effectively playing hurt, which certainly diminished his ability to put his usual zip on the football.

Still, putting the excuses aside, Kiel’s production in the second half of the year certainly didn’t live up to the first. His completion percentage was up but yards per game and attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and quarterback rating took a hit. Plus Kiel displayed noticeable hesitation with the ball in his hand, either focusing in on his #1 receiver without looking at his check down options or holding it far too long. He also had a tendency to over-trusted his arm, trying to force the ball into windows that were far from open.

Was it frustrating at times? Sure. But is it concerning for his long term outlook as Cincinnati’s quarterback? Absolutely not.

We have to remember that 2014 was Gunner Kiel’s first collegiate season. The last time he quarterbacked an offense for a string of games was his senior year at Columbus East way back in 2011. Since then he’s bounced around from program to program only to settle on UC last year. Kiel hasn’t built up the physical and mental stamina to play a full slate of 12 games in a row like he did in high school.

He’ll improve his decision making over the course of his career at UC.

Just look at TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin. As a freshman and sophomore spelling injured upperclassman Casey Pachall, he completed 58% of his passes and threw just 22 touchdowns to 17 interceptions through 19 games. Now as a junior on the 6th best team in the country, Boykin is completing 61% of his passes and has tossed for over 3,700 yards and 30 touchdowns to just 7 picks. Clearly the experience of a rocky first two years at TCU has molded him into a quarterback who could be playing on Sundays not too far from now.

The same development should occur for Gunner Kiel as he enters his junior year in 2015. With actual game film to study, I’m confident in Darin Hinshaw working with him to make better choices with the ball in his hands and not trust his cannon of a right arm whenever the offense gets off kilter. Kiel has all the tools to be a NFL quarterback someday, he just needs some refinement. That will come in time.