Bearcats Football: Cincinnati Still Capable Of Winning AAC Championship

Believe it or not the Cincinnati Bearcats are still very much mathematically capable of winning the AAC Championship. Yep, not necessarily as a result of UC beating the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Saturday. That certainly was a factor. You have to win games to even have a hope at getting some hardware at the end of the season.

But the event that truly shook up the AAC standings was South Florida’s thumping of Temple at home in what many consider Willie Taggart’s last ditch attempt to save his job, as the Bulls are now bowl eligible for the first time in five years. Essentially it halted the Owls’ attempt at running away with the AAC East, as they’re now 5-1 in the division with two games to play.

• Temple: 5-1
• South Florida: 4-2
• Cincinnati: 3-3
• UConn: 3-3

Now with two games remaining, things start to get mighty interesting the East as every team in the top of the division are essentially playing a round robin with everyone else.

• Temple: #21 Memphis, UConn
• South Florida: Cincinnati, @ Central Florida
• Cincinnati: @ South Florida, @ East Carolina
• UConn: #21 Houston, @ #22 Temple

More from Cincy on the Prowl

• Cincinnati Football: Bearcats aim to get back on track against Oklahoma in Big 12 opener
• Cincinnati Football: Red zone concerns could be a recurring issue throughout season
• Cincinnati Football: Players of the game from the Bearcats recent loss to rival Miami
• Cincinnati Football: Defensive standouts from the disappointing Battle for the Victory Bell loss
• Cincinnati Football: Can the Bearcats bounce back from frustrating loss against Miami?

What we should be keeping an eye on as UC fans are Temple’s final two games against Memphis and UConn. The Tigers were mere seconds away from ripping Houston from the ranks of the unbeaten, as a missed 48-yard field goal sunk their hopes of squashing the Cougars’ comeback. But Memphis is still a top tier team, despite being 4-2 in the AAC West, with both losses coming to teams ahead of them in the standings Houston and Navy (both 6-0). So while the Owls get the Tigers at home, who’s to say Memphis couldn’t go there and snag themselves a win? This should essentially be a coin flip as to who emerges victory.

Then there’s Temple’s season finale against UConn. It’s not unfathomable to think the Huskies couldn’t go into Philly and beat the Owls on the road. Heck, USF of all teams took them down, albeit at home. UConn is much improved offensively this year and their typical selves on defense, as in stout as all hell. Plus if they lose to Houston this week, UConn will be 5-6 and will need to beat Temple to become bowl eligible. So there should be extra motivation there.

In general, UC’s path to the AAC title is this:

1. Cincinnati wins out (I think that goes without saying)
2. Temple loses out (again, goes without saying)

Pretty simple, right? Sure, but in our usual fashion, we’re going to get into the nitty-gritty of exactly how UC heads to the conference championship after the next two games. Here’s the final standings among the top four in the AAC East should the rest of the season break this way:

• Temple: 5-3, win over Cincinnati
• Cincinnati: 5-3, win over UConn, South Florida
• South Florida: 5-3, win over Temple (also UCF to add that 5th win)
• UConn: 4-4, win over Temple (or 5-3 if the Huskies beat Houston)

According to the American Athletic Conference’s tiebreaker rules, should Temple, UC, and South Florida (and UConn if they wind up at 5-3) all finish with identical conference records, the Bearcats would come out on top. Really, how the Huskies finish is inconsequential to Cincinnati’s AAC East title hopes, except for the fact that they need to beat Temple. But whether UConn finishes 4-4 or 5-3 in the division makes no difference to UC because the Bearcats would have the edge in either situation, by sheer conference record or tiebreaker rules.

So it really comes down to the divisional records of Temple, UC, and South Florida. In this scenario the Owls would be 3-2 in the AAC East and the Bearcats and Bulls would both be 4-1. Then, because Cincinnati will have beaten USF, the Bearcats would be heading to the AAC Championship to face either Navy or Houston, and wouldn’t you want another shot at the Cougars?

Ok, to sum all of that up:

• Cincinnati needs to win their next two games, especially USF this Friday, with Temple losing their final two games
• South Florida needs to beat Central Florida
• UConn needs to beat Temple

Again, clear as mud. But for the Bearcats in the short term it boils down to #BeatUSF.