Cincinnati Football: Previewing The UC Bearcats v. The South Florida Bulls

Unlike what most folks, myself included, probably tabbed before the season began, the Cincinnati Bearcats face the South Florida Bulls on Friday night in what is all of a sudden an incredibly important game to determine the outcome of the AAC East Division. USF needs the win to lurch ahead of Temple, by way of tiebreaker rules, should they lose to Memphis and UC needs the win to simply stay in the race.

The Bulls have simply found a way to turn it on at this late juncture in the 2015 football season and pose a very difficult challenge for the Bearcats. Cincinnati pasted South Florida at home 34-17 last year but they’ll have to play about as well as they have all season to escape Tampa with a victory on Friday night.

OFFENSE

Like Houston two weeks ago, this offense revolves around the dual-threat abilities of its quarterback Quinton Flowers. He’s South Florida’s second leading “running back” with 747 yards per game and leads the team in rushing touchdowns, while passing for 1,676 yards and 14 touchdowns to just six picks this season. But Flowers doesn’t really skew more towards one or the other. He only has a 60% completion percentage this year, which as dipped as low as 45% and 53% this past month, so I’d say if there was one aspect of his game to keep an eye on it’s the damage he can do with his legs.

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Speaking of that, the biggest threat on South Florida’s offense is easily sophomore running back Marlon Mack, who is averaging 6.5 yards per carry for 1,049 yards on the ground this season. UC kept him check last year, allowing him to run just 54 yards on 12 carries, but that was at home. With the way the Bearcats have been gashed by opposing rushing attacks this year, he could have a huge game tomorrow night.

DEFENSE

The Bulls are as rock solid as ever defensively. Not Alabama-great but above average; 28th in the country in sacks (2.6. per game), 47th in total defense (370 yards per game), and 34th in scoring defense (22.3 points per game).

The key is the pressure they get not only from their defensive line but their second and third levels. South Florida’s leading sack man is defensive back Jamie Byrd (five). So think of him like UC’s Chris Williams or Adrian Witty from way back in 2012. Tion Green, Hosey Williams, and most importantly Mike Boone will need to be on their game to keep the edge rushers at bay. But the responsibility will also be on Eddie Gran to draw up quick passing plays to negate that pass rush and Gunner Kiel or Hayden Moore (probably Kiel) to get the ball out of his hand quickly.

FIVE KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Make Marlon Mack A Non-Factor
2. Treat Quinton Flowers Like Greg Ward Dr.
3. Scheme To Negate USF’s Pass Rush
4. Settling For Field Goals Is OK
5. Don’t Be Afraid To Air It Out (Are They Ever?)

FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION

South Florida appears to finally be hitting its stride late in Willie Taggart’s third year as head coach and, for his job’s sake, he’s fortunate they’re finally starting to come together. Unfortunately it couldn’t come at a worse time for the Bearcats who need to win their final two games to even have a shot at winning the AAC East and go to the championship game. On the flip side, UC is playing its best football of the season, with the offensive clicking like its usual self and the defense finally coming along. With the Bulls fighting for their first winning season in half-a-decade, this won’t be easy for UC, but I think they win a close one.

Cincinnati: 30

South Florida: 27