Cincinnati Basketball: Previewing The UC Bearcats v. The No. 15 SMU Mustangs

Feb 5, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Nic Moore (11) drives around Cincinnati Bearcats forward Gary Clark (11) during the second half of an NCAA basketball game at Moody Coliseum. Cincinnati won 62-54. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 5, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Nic Moore (11) drives around Cincinnati Bearcats forward Gary Clark (11) during the second half of an NCAA basketball game at Moody Coliseum. Cincinnati won 62-54. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Bearcats will attempt to jolt themselves back into the top 25 with a win over the #15 SMU Mustangs tomorrow night at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, Texas. Here’s a preview of UC’s next opponent.

KEY NUMBERS

As you’d expect, the Larry Brown-led Mustangs are an extremely efficient, but not necessarily fast paced, team. SMU kills opponents with quick, decisive passes to open shooters but they don’t rush their possessions in the process. Yet they still average 82.8 points per game (22nd).

The Mustangs average just 68.1 plays per game, which ranks 320th in the country. Even Cincinnati, which we all know runs a glacially slow offense, isn’t even that slow, averaging 68.9 plays per game. But, again, it’s the team chemistry that generates all the points for SMU. They rank 7th nationally averaging 19 assists per game and boast a very impressive assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.7 (12th). All of that generates for the Mustangs an impressive offensive efficiency rating, the amount of points per shot taken, of 1.22, which ranks second in all of college basketball.

More from Cincy on the Prowl

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Nic Moore (#11): Based on everything above, conventional wisdom dictates “everybody”! But we’re picking last year’s AAC Player of the Year, Nic Moore because, well, he’s the embodiment of Larry Brown mind on the court. SMU’s leader in points, assists, and steals, the point guard takes what his head coach has taught him for the last several years and runs the offense to a tee. Except quite a bit of switching on the perimeter tomorrow night as Brown will attempt to get Moore open but the Bearcats shouldn’t over commit because, if these stats have taught us anything, SMU is as good as any team in the country in finding open shooters and knocking down those shots.

BEST MATCHUP

Octavius Ellis v. Jordan Tolbert (#23): Averaging a double-double, Tolbert is SMU’s biggest threat inside and to attempt to negate his presence it only makes sense that Octavius Ellis bestowed the task. Now, we’re calling this the best matchup in this game. But it’ll probably take a combination of him and Gary Clark to fully contain the Mustangs’ front court, which also includes Ben Moore (12-9-3). Even so, Ellis and Tolbert are the ones to watch tomorrow night.

FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION

This is an extremely well-coached, well-run offense that moves the ball around a lot and hits threes at a rate of 42.8%. Given the Bearcats’ sheer ineptitude at switching properly defensively on the outside, leaving shooters as open as they could possibly be, this could spell doom for them. Cincinnati has the talent and system to beat the Mustangs for a third straight time but I really have a hard time seeing it happening. UC absolutely has the capability of pulling off the upset but my brain says tomorrow night is loss number five.

I’d love to be proven wrong, though!

SMU: 75

Cincinnati: 66